Paradigm of knowledge

Innovative methodological approaches using analytical and digital technologies for determining the current and forecast of the future forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological state of the main forest-forming species in the context of changing weather conditions and climatic impact on the forest vegetation conditions of the nature reserve fund of the Perhansky, Kopyshchansky, Selezivsky nature conservation research departments (PNDV) of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp» are substantiated. A practical approbation of the application of digital modeling for the analysis of meteorological information for the assessment of forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring was carried out in the conditions of both the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the State Enterprise "Snovskrayagrolisgosp" of stands of Scots pine, downy birch, common spruce, black alder, and common aspen in forest vegetation conditions A_1-2, B_2-3, C_2-3. The effectiveness of the method of digital assessment of the general forest pathological, entomological, and forest pyrological condition of trees was analyzed, as the main factor in monitoring the impact of weather conditions and climatic factors on preventing the further spread of pest and disease foci, the accumulation of forest combustible materials, and as a result, the occurrence and spread of forest fires. The effectiveness of the application of digital modeling for the analysis of meteorological information for the assessment of forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring in the conditions of both the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE "Snovskrayagrolishosp" was determined. The scientific and research effectiveness of the proposed digital modeling methodology for the objective assessment of the current sanitary condition of pine-birch, birch-alder, birch-aspen, alder-aspen stands in forest vegetation conditions A_1-2, B_2-3, C_2-3 of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolishosp» was assessed.

The subject of the work is the practical testing of the methodology of digital modeling for the analysis of meteorological information regarding the possibility of assessing forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring in the conditions of both the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp», determining the effectiveness and improvement of modern methodological approaches to the practical application of digital methods for determining the current phytosanitary, forest pyrological state of tree plantations using the results of the examination, as well as providing practical recommendations regarding the possibility of further application of the proposed methodology both in research institutions and in the conditions of forest protection, forest assessment production institutions and organizations. A practical comparison of the results of the application of the recommended methodology for digital modeling of meteorological information analysis for the assessment of forest pathological, forest entomological, forest pyrological monitoring, with the results of currently generally accepted methods for determining the forest pathological, forest entomological, forest pyrological state of trees in the conditions of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp». Approbation of the proposed methodology for digital modeling of meteorological information analysis for the assessment of forest pathological, forest entomological, forest pyrological monitoring in the conditions of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp».

The aim of the work is a comprehensive comparative assessment of the effectiveness of the digital methodology proposed by us in forest vegetation conditions A_1-2, B_2-3, C_2-3 of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp» with generally accepted methodologies for determining the forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological state, as well as the possibility of its practical implementation.

The main methods of conducting research on the study and practical testing of the methodology for applying digital modeling to analyze meteorological information for assessing forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring in the conditions of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp» were:

1. Calculation and analytical for collecting and processing the results of research on the methodology proposed by us for applying digital modeling to analyze meteorological information for assessing forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring, as well as existing monitoring methods in forest vegetation conditions A_1-2, B_2-3, C_2-3 of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp».

2. Conducting phytopathological, entomological, pyrological examination of tree stands in conditions A_1-2, B_2-3, C_2-3 of the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp», comparing the results obtained with the results of existing methodologies used by research institutions, production units of the State Enterprise «Forests of Ukraine» for monitoring, identifying signs of diseases, damage by pests, scorching from forest fires of various types and intensities, statistical analysis of the results obtained, comparing them with the results of using existing methodologies in the conditions of the Central and Eastern Polissya zone as a whole.

3. Assessment of the representativeness and objectivity of the obtained research results in relation to all research objects.

4. Testing of the proposed methodology for applying digital modeling to analyze meteorological information for assessing forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring in the conditions of both the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp».

According to the results of the work, it was established that the methodology for applying digital modeling to analyze meteorological information for the assessment of forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological monitoring will further provide an opportunity to determine the current sanitary, pyrological, and entomological state of forest ecosystems in the conditions of nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve, as well as production units, using the example of the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp». It was established that the practical application of the proposed methodology will further provide a practical opportunity to predict the occurrence and spread of forest diseases and pests, foci of forest fires due to the accumulation of forest combustible materials in other territories of both the objects of the nature reserve fund of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp», as an example. It was determined that the proposed methodology provides a practical opportunity to make forecasts regarding the possibility of the occurrence and spread of diseases, pests, and forest fires, taking into account meteorological information and climatic factors, including those dangerous to humans, in the conditions of both the environmental research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the SE «Snovskrayagrolisgosp».

The scope of application of the research results is the nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve, the objects of the Nature Conservation Fund of Ukraine, research institutions and organizations, production forest protection enterprises, forestry enterprises of the State Enterprise «Forests of Ukraine» located in the zone of Central and Eastern Polissya.

The conclusions of the research are that today, due to weather and climate changes in natural forest ecosystems, nature conservation research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve, production units of the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp», such pathogenic pathogens as root sponge, pine sponge, resin cancer, diseases of tree trunks and crowns, root and heart rot of birch wood have become widespread in the form of epiphytoses, spreading over large areas. All this creates favorable conditions for the development and spread of forest stem pests, as well as the accumulation of forest combustible materials due to wood waste and, as a result, forest fires. The proposed methodology for applying digital modeling to analyze meteorological information to assess the current and prospective forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological state is based on the use of silvicultural, phytopathological, entomological, pyrological, and taxonomic methods to determine the damage to forest stands in the conditions of both nature conservation research departments, on the example of the Polissya Nature Reserve, in forest vegetation conditions A_1-2, B_2-3, C_2-3, and production units of the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp», which will further provide a practical opportunity to conduct timely and effective express monitoring of the current and prospective sanitary condition of forests, to design and implement measures in advance to prevent the occurrence of epiphytoses of pathogens, the spread of dangerous forest pests, and to reduce the risks of the occurrence and spread of forest fires in the forest vegetation conditions of the Central and Eastern Polissya zone of Ukraine as much as possible. The methodology we have proposed will allow us to make timely, rational and effective forest pathological, lyoentomological, forest pyrological forecasts of the occurrence of disease foci, pest reproduction, forest fires, assess the destruction and damage of forest stands, determine potential economic losses from the pathogenesis of diseases, entomological activity of pests and, as a consequence, forest fires. The practical use of the proposed methodology will allow us to predict and determine foci of mass epiphytoses of root and pine sponge pathogens, a complex of tree trunk and crown diseases, the occurrence and large-scale spread of forest. The proposed methodology for applying digital modeling to analyze meteorological information to assess the current and prospective forest pathological, forest entomological, and forest pyrological state makes it possible to design and timely conduct research, practical, and preventive measures to limit the spread of extremely dangerous pathogens, forest pests, and forest fires in the conditions of both the environmental research departments of the Polissya Nature Reserve and the production units of the State Enterprise «Snovskrayagrolisgosp».

Key words: forest, methodology, meteorology, climate, innovation, digital technologies, forest pathology, phytophagous insects, forest fires, forecast, forest protection.

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