Paradigm of knowledge

The use of meteorological information obtained from the base weather station for conducting forest pathological monitoring in the conditions of nature conservation research departments (PNDV) of the Polissya Nature Reserve is justified. The results of conducting forest pathological monitoring studies of pine stands in the forest vegetation conditions of the Perhansky, Kopyshchansky, Selezivsky PNDVs of the Polissya Nature Reserve are analyzed.

The subject of the work is the practical application of an innovative method using meteorological information from a local automatic meteorological station in the conditions of the settlement of Selezivka, for conducting forest pathological monitoring surveys of the sanitary condition of forests in the forest vegetation conditions of the Perhansky, Kopyshchansky, Selezivsky PNDV of the Polissya Nature Reserve, as well as its comparison with the effectiveness of existing methodologies for assessing the pathological condition of forests in the conditions of the Central Polissya zone of Ukraine. Testing and assessment of the representativeness of innovative methodological principles for using meteorological information obtained from the automatic meteorological station of the Polissya Nature Reserve to conduct forest pathological monitoring studies and forecasts of the spread of diseases and the spread of pests in the conditions of the Pergan, Kopyshchan, Seleziv PNDV, assessment of the actual discrepancy of indicators in comparison with the proposed methodology with generally recognized methods for conducting forest pathological surveys for disease and pest damage, as well as further forecasting the forest pathological state of forests using meteorological information to prevent the occurrence and spread of epiphytoses of forest diseases and pests.

The aim of the work is to determine the effectiveness of the proposed innovative methodology for conducting forest pathological monitoring using meteorological information from an automatic weather station on the territory of forest uses of the Polissya Nature Reserve; to assess the possibility of using meteorological data obtained from an automatic weather station on the territory of the Polissya Nature Reserve to compile forest pathological and entomological forecasts regarding the likely spread of diseases and pests in the forest vegetation conditions of the Pergan, Kopyshchan, and Seleziv PNDVs; based on the proposed innovative methodology for conducting forest pathological monitoring studies using meteorological data, to provide practical targeted recommendations to both forestry branches and objects of the nature reserve fund of Ukraine regarding the prevention of the occurrence and spread of epiphytoties of diseases and pests, as well as the compilation of forest pathological forecasts for planning preventive measures in the conditions of the Central Polissya zone of Ukraine.

The main methods of conducting research to study methodological approaches to predicting forest pathological conditions using meteorological information obtained from an automatic weather station in the conditions of the PNDV of the Polissya Nature Reserve were:

1. Calculation and analytical for collecting and processing the results of research to study the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for conducting forest pathological studies using meteorological information from an automatic weather station in the forest vegetation conditions of the Pergansky, Kopyshchansky, Selezivsky PNDVs of the Polissya Nature Reserve, as well as their comparison with generally accepted methods.

2. Implementation of general and sub-annual forest pathological monitoring and statistical analysis of the results obtained using existing methodologies for research into the pathological condition of forests in the Central Polissya zone of Ukraine.

3. Determination of the representativeness and objectivity of the obtained research results in relation to all objects of the nature reserve fund of the Central Polissya zone of Ukraine, where pine stands dominate.

4. Providing practical recommendations to both branches of the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine" and objects of the nature reserve fund on the possibility of applying the proposed innovative methodology for determining the forest pathological condition of forests using meteorological data from an automatic weather station, as well as the possibility of creating forecasts of the risks of the occurrence and spread of epiphytoties of diseases and pests in the forest vegetation conditions of the nature reserve fund of Ukraine.

According to the results of the work, it was found that meteorological information during forest pathological monitoring provides an assessment of the climatic features of the region, carries out a detailed analysis of weather conditions of individual years and seasons of the year (spring, summer, autumn, winter), provides an objective assessment of the weather situation during critical periods of the life cycle of forest insect pests and the spread of diseases, assesses meteorological phenomena that cause abiotic stress in plants and, through a complex system of biocenotic relationships, modify the number of insects and pathogens in various forest-vegetation conditions. It has been proven that with a large positive anomaly of the sums of active temperatures, quite favorable conditions are created (especially in combination with a deficit of precipitation) for a sharp increase in the number of forest insect pests. The method of forecasting the heat supply of the growing season is based on the relationship between the sums of active temperatures (Σt>t°) and the date of the spring transition of the average daily air temperature through 10°C. Such a methodological approach to forest pathological forecasts makes it possible to establish with a probability of 95% not only the probable area of disease distribution, but also to determine specific types of pests and their threshold of harmfulness in forest edatopes. It was found that the assessment of moisture conditions during the growing season directly affects the course of disease pathogenesis and the spread of pests in the conditions of the PNDV of the Polissya Nature Reserve. The results of the conducted forest pathological studies indicate a significant change in pathological processes under the influence of weather conditions in pine nature reserve forests of the Central Polissya zone of Ukraine.

The scope of application of the results of the conducted research is the objects of the nature reserve fund on the example of the Polissya Nature Reserve, forestry enterprises and forestry enterprises, which are geographically located in the Central Polissya zone, in order to determine the pathological state of forests and subsequently the possibility of predicting the risks of the occurrence and spread of epiphytoties in natural forest ecosystems. The data obtained as a result of the research can also be used when compiling forest pathological computer models of the probable occurrence, spread of pests and diseases in the forests of the nature reserve fund of the Central Polissya zone of Ukraine.

The conclusions of the research are that the spread of diseases and pests as a result of weather and climatic features in the spring-autumn and winter period due to abnormally warm winters annually destroys significant areas of forests of the nature reserve fund. The most affected by constant pathogenesis and damage by pests are pine stands of the boreal type of Pergansky, Selezivsky and Kopyshchansky PNDV of the Polesie Nature Reserve. We have determined that as a result of weather and climatic anomalies in the forest vegetation conditions of the Polesie Nature Reserve, the active pathological effect of the complex of diseases and pests, causing active drying of stands of Scots pine and European birch, is 2 times higher than similar indicators in areas with more stable weather indicators, especially the amount of precipitation and the sum of active temperatures. The entry of Scots pine into a persistent pathological process with subsequent death due to the active biological activity of diseases and pests in the conditions of the Polesie Nature Reserve occurs quite intensively. It was established that the scale and nature of the pathological process in pine stands of the Polesie Nature Reserve in the context of the applied innovative methodology for determining pathological features using meteorological information from an automatic weather station differs significantly from the previously described methods. It was determined that meteorological data from an automatic weather station provide significant indicators of weather conditions that can be used to assess the pathologies of pests and forest diseases. The annual dynamics of the intensity of pathogenesis in the pine forest has significantly changed for the worse due to abnormally warm winters, especially in 2023, 2024, 2025. It was studied that in a pine forest affected by a pathological process, there is a higher formation and spread of mass epiphytoses of root and pine sponge, as well as the biological activity of apex, six-toothed bark beetles, pine woodworm, gold leaf beetle and other woodworm pests. Pathologies of pine stands due to weather and climatic conditions, as well as the probability of such dangerous phenomena as windbreak and windbreak due to the pathological activity of root and pine sponge pathogens in the conditions of forest use of the Polesie Nature Reserve is quite high compared to control areas, where the pathogenic impact of these pathogens is quite low. This, in turn, causes a faster rate of biological destruction of dead trees and broken logs, which, by the way, can further lead to the accumulation of forest combustible materials and their further natural preparation for possible fire in the presence of appropriate weather and climatic conditions. The practical use of the obtained research results is to determine the possibility of applying the methodology of forest pathological surveys using meteorological data to analyze the current and forecast the future forest pathological situation in the forest-vegetation boreal conditions of the Polesie Nature Reserve. Determining the pathological state of forests in the conditions of the Perhansky, Selezivsky, Kopyshchansky PNDV of the Polesie Nature Reserve will further allow for the practical determination of the quantitative and species composition of pathogens and pests, to determine the probability of the occurrence of epiphytoties and their spread in the conditions of the Polesie Nature Reserve.

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