INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS IN MODERN SCIENCE

Scientific and analytical determination of parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics until 2050.

The issue of a promising, innovative model for detecting the risk of the occurrence and mass spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on the example of winter wheat under the condition of changing weather and climatic conditions in the future until 2050 has been substantiated. During the period of the conducted research, a practical approbation of the proposed model has been carried out. The effectiveness of innovative methodological approaches to preventing the occurrence and spread of mass epiphytoties of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on winter wheat crops in the Eastern Polissya zone of Ukraine has been assessed. The risks of the spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch of winter wheat to other grain crops have been assessed, which in the future has a very significant impact on the reduction of their resistance, productivity, and yield on production crops both in modern and post-war times. The effectiveness of the proposed monitoring model for detecting the risk of occurrence and mass spread of the pathogen Septoria (Septoria tritici blotch, STB) on commercial winter wheat crops in agricultural enterprises of various forms of ownership has been analyzed and substantiated, in terms of practical assessment of the impact of weather and climate changes, the environmental plasticity of the pathogen to soil, weather and climate conditions in the perspective until 2050. Monitoring determination of the dynamics of its spread, the conditions for the appearance of foci, the spread of epiphytotia of winter wheat Fusarium, as the main monitoring factor of the phytopathological, selection, physiological, morphological stability of winter wheat crops, has been carried out. The effectiveness of the application of the model for detecting the risk of occurrence and mass spread of the pathogen Septoria (Septoria tritici blotch, STB) on the example of winter wheat under the condition of changes in weather and climate factors in the perspective until 2050 has been determined.

The subject of the work is the practical testing of our proposed model for detecting the risk of occurrence and mass spread of the Septoria blotch pathogen (Septoria tritici blotch, STB) on the example of winter wheat under the condition of changing weather and climatic factors in the future until 2050, as well as the assessment of the possibility of practical use of this model for determining the phytopathological condition of crops of both winter wheat and other crops of the grain group using the results of phytopathological examination and their further processing, determining the scientific and practical effectiveness of our proposed model for the possibility of its further scientific use in the conditions of agricultural enterprises, research institutions and organizations of Ukraine. A practical comparison of the results obtained by us in the conditions of agricultural enterprises of various forms of ownership of Eastern Polissya using risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) using the example of winter wheat, its representativeness in terms of practical effectiveness in other soil and climatic conditions, which will further allow us to determine the phytopathological, physiological and immunological state of winter wheat crops, and to predict the risks of the emergence of foci of the spread of the pathogen Septoria in the context of weather and climate changes in both Ukraine and Europe until 2025 inclusive. Testing of our proposed phytopathological and climatic parameters of the risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics until 2050, as a promising innovative method of phytopathological indication of winter wheat sowing, determination of its physiological, breeding and seed, immunological, and resistant state in the conditions of modern climate change both in Eastern Polissya of Ukraine and in Europe in particular.

The aim of the work is a comprehensive assessment of the practical effectiveness of the methodology we have proposed for the scientific and analytical determination of parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) using the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050, which is currently relevant.

The main research methods for studying and assessing the practical effectiveness of the parameters of the risk models proposed by us for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050 in the conditions of agricultural enterprises of various forms of ownership in the Eastern Polissya area were:

1. Computational and analytical - on the collection and processing of the results of the conducted research to determine the parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) using the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050.

2. Conducting phytopathological, morphological, soil, breeding and seed, entomological, weather and climatic monitoring of winter wheat crops in the conditions of agricultural enterprises of various forms of ownership, comparing the results obtained with the results of existing methodologies that are widely used by research and development, scientific and production institutions of the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection of Ukraine, the Plant Quarantine Service, breeding and seed centers of Ukraine for monitoring grain crops, identifying signs of damage by pathogens of septoria in winter wheat, conducting statistical analysis of the results obtained, comparing them with the results of existing models in order to determine the phytopathological, morphological, breeding and seed, and resistant state both in the conditions of Eastern Polissya of Ukraine and the entire Polissya zone as a whole.

3. Assessment of the representativeness and objectivity of the obtained research results in relation to all agricultural enterprises of both the Eastern Polissya zone and the entire Polissya zone of Ukraine using the example of experimental crops in the conditions of Chernihiv region.

4. Practical testing of the proposed scientific and analytical determination of the parameters of the risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) using the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050 in the conditions of agricultural enterprises of various forms of ownership and research institutions in the Eastern Polissya zone of Ukraine.

According to the results of the research, it was found that the shift of the focus of the occurrence of critical risk falls on the early spring period, which is associated with an increase in the average air temperature in March–May to ≥ 14°C. It was clearly revealed that the increase in the frequency of hot summer days (t>30°C) significantly limits the development of the pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici of winter wheat in the second half of the growing season. In turn, this requires updating the seasonal structure of the predicted risk models. It was established that the key abiotic triggers for the onset of pathology and the spread of the pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici on winter wheat are: air temperature +15, +25°C, relative humidity ≥ 90%, the amount of precipitation ≥ 15–20mm in 3 days, the duration of leaf wetting ≥ 36–48 hours, as well as the cumulative condition – at least 10 days in the optimal temperature range. These parameters are systematized in a tabular model structure for further software application. It has been practically proven that the short-term meteorological trigger of the risk of the occurrence of a focus of epiphytotia of the pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici, namely: average temperature ≥+14°C in combination with precipitation ≥12mm within 48 hours. This approach allows you to quickly connect weather forecasts to warning systems in production agrosystems.

The scope of application of the research results includes both agricultural production enterprises of various forms of ownership, as well as scientific and research, breeding and seed institutions and organizations, the State Food and Consumer Protection Service of Ukraine, and institutions of the State Quarantine Inspectorate of Ukraine.

The conclusions of the research are that due to changes in weather and climatic conditions, such a highly pathogenic pathogen of winter wheat disease as Zymoseptoria tritici has become widespread. Its foci and epiphytotia subsequently become the causes of the reproduction of pests of grain crops, and as a result - the loss of agricultural products and the shortage of marketable grain of winter wheat by 32.4%. The methodology we have proposed for determining the parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria blotch (Septoria tritici blotch, STB) on the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of the dynamics of climate change by 2050 will in the future make it possible to conduct timely phytopathological, breeding and seed monitoring of crops of both winter wheat and other crops of the grain group, to design and implement measures to prevent the occurrence of epiphytotia of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch, STB, and to reduce the risks of its large-scale foci as much as possible. The specified methodology for determining the parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) will in the future provide a practical opportunity to timely and effectively forecast possible foci of occurrence of both the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch of winter wheat and other diseases with the participation of infection by representatives of fungi of this class, will make it impossible for the factor of occurrence of foci of mass epiphytoses of pathogens of agricultural crops due to climate change factors, anthropogenic human activity, and after a full-scale invasion of the territory of Ukraine by an aggressor country, military factors. The practical use of scientific and analytical determination of the parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050, as well as its impact on the phytosanitary condition of crops of both winter wheat and grain crops, will further allow predicting and determining possible foci of epiphytotia of pathogens of fungal and bacterial diseases, and as a result - protecting agricultural crops from the spread of phytopathogenic organisms. The application of models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050 will further allow practical assessment of the phytopathological condition of winter wheat crops to determine the potentially possible yield, as well as timely conduct phytopathological examination of grain crops in the conditions of agricultural enterprises of various forms of ownership, research institutions, and organizations. To predict further preventive measures to limit the spread of phytopathogens, the emergence and spread of pests, and to prevent the spread of epiphytotia of the pathogen to other grain crops. The developed methodology for the scientific and analytical determination of the parameters of risk models for the detection and spread of the pathogen Septoria tritici blotch (STB) on the example of winter wheat in Ukraine and Europe in the context of climate change dynamics by 2050 makes it possible to conduct practical physiological, phytopathological, breeding and seed research in the conditions of scientific research institutions and organizations, growing agricultural crops of the grain group in the conditions not only of Eastern Polissya, where our research was conducted, but also in general in the conditions of the Polissya zone of Ukraine.

Key words: septoria, wheat, weather, climate, changes, agroclimatic modeling, epiphytotia risks, Polissya of Ukraine, adaptation of agrosystems, phytopathological forecasting, phenological models.

Adamenko, T. (2018). Глобальне потепління може перетворити Полісся у Степ. Superagronom. https://superagronom.com/news/4174-globalne-poteplinnya-moje-peretvoriti-polissya-u-step--adamenko. 214 р.

Chen, F., Duan, G.-H., Li, D.-L., & Zhan, J. (2017). Host Resistance and Temperature-Dependent Evolution of Aggressiveness in the Plant Pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici. Frontiers in Microbiology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.01217 211 p.

Gouache, D., Baccar, R., Brun, F., et al. (2013). Modelling climate change impacts on disease pressure: The example of Septoria leaf blotch in winter wheat in France. Global Change Biology, 19 (7). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12218. 320 р.

Gouache, D., Bensadoun, A., Brun, F., Pagé, C., Makowski, D., & Wallach, D. (2013). Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: Accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Retrieved from ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225081728_Modelling_climate_change_impact_on_Septoria_Tritici_Blotch_STB_in_France_Accounting_for_climate_model_and_disease_model_uncertainty. 252 p.

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press. 134 p.

Eljarj, S., Hlaing, M. M., Alshehri, M. A., Algarni, M. A., & Alghamdi, A. I. (2023). Impact of climate change on plant diseases: A review of causal mechanisms, implications and adaptation strategies. Frontiers in Plant Science, 13, 9877539. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.9877539. 216 p

Juroszek, P., & von Tiedemann, A. (2013). Climate change and potential future risks through wheat diseases: a review. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 136 (1), p. 21–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-012-0144-9 184 p.

Miedaner, T., & Juroszek, P. (2021). Climate change will influence disease resistance breeding in wheat in Northwestern Europe. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 134. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00122-021-03785-7. 189 p.

Ponomarenko, A., Goodwin, S. B., & Kema, G. H. J. (2011). Septoria tritici blotch of wheat. The Plant Health Instructor. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHI-I-2011-0407-01. 203 p.

Prahl, K. C., Klink, H., Hasler, M., Verreet, J.-A., & Birr, T. (2023). Will Climate Change Affect the Disease Progression of Septoria Tritici Blotch in Northern Europe Agronomy, 13 (4), 105 p. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13041005 134 p

Baccar, R., Fournier, C., Dornbusch, T., Andrieu, B., Gouache, D., & Robert, C. (2011). Modelling the effect of wheat canopy architecture as affected by sowing density on Septoria tritici epidemics using a coupled epidemic–virtual plant model. Annals of Botany, 108(6), 1179–1194. DOI:10.1093/aob/mcr126. 231 p.

Suffert, F., Sache, I., & Lannou, C. (2010). Early stages of Septoria tritici blotch epidemics of winter wheat: Build up, overseasoning, and release of primary inoculum. Plant Pathology, 60 (2). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02369. 177 p.

FAO. (2021). Wheat diseases and climate resilience: Adapting crop protection to future risks. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/publications. 211 p.

Ecoaction. (2025, May 16). Climate change in Ukraine and the world: Causes, consequences, and solutions. Ecoaction Center for Environmental Initiatives. https://ecoaction.org.ua/zmina-klimatu-ua-ta-svit.html. 134 p.

Інститут захисту рослин НААН України. (2023). Оперативна інформація щодо фітосанітарного стану посівів сільськогосподарських культур в Україні на 22 червня 2023 р. https://ipp.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/220623.doc. 242 c.

Chaloner, T. M., Gurr, S. J., & Bebber, D. P. (2016). Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change. Global Change Biology, 22(11), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12899 162 p.

References:

Adamenko, T. (2018). Hlobalne poteplinnia mozhe peretvoryty Polissia u Step. Superagronom. https://superagronom.com/news/4174-globalne-poteplinnya-moje-peretvoriti-polissya-u-step--adamenko. 214 р. [in English].

Chen, F., Duan, G.-H., Li, D.-L., & Zhan, J. (2017). Host Resistance and Temperature-Dependent Evolution of Aggressiveness in the Plant Pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici. Frontiers in Microbiology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.01217 211 p. [in English].

Gouache, D., Baccar, R., Brun, F., et al. (2013). Modelling climate change impacts on disease pressure: The example of Septoria leaf blotch in winter wheat in France. Global Change Biology, 19 (7). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12218. 320 р. [in English].

Gouache, D., Bensadoun, A., Brun, F., Pagé, C., Makowski, D., & Wallach, D. (2013). Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: Accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Retrieved from ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225081728_Modelling_climate_change_impact_on_Septoria_Tritici_Blotch_STB_in_France_Accounting_for_climate_model_and_disease_model_uncertainty. 252 p. [in English].

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press. 134 p. [in English].

Eljarj, S., Hlaing, M. M., Alshehri, M. A., Algarni, M. A., & Alghamdi, A. I. (2023). Impact of climate change on plant diseases: A review of causal mechanisms, implications and adaptation strategies. Frontiers in Plant Science, 13, 9877539. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.9877539. 216 p

Juroszek, P., & von Tiedemann, A. (2013). Climate change and potential future risks through wheat diseases: a review. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 136 (1), p. 21–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-012-0144-9 184 p. [in English].

Miedaner, T., & Juroszek, P. (2021). Climate change will influence disease resistance breeding in wheat in Northwestern Europe. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 134. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00122-021-03785-7. 189 p. [in English].

Ponomarenko, A., Goodwin, S. B., & Kema, G. H. J. (2011). Septoria tritici blotch of wheat. The Plant Health Instructor. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHI-I-2011-0407-01. 203 p. [in English].

Prahl, K. C., Klink, H., Hasler, M., Verreet, J.-A., & Birr, T. (2023). Will Climate Change Affect the Disease Progression of Septoria Tritici Blotch in Northern Europe Agronomy, 13 (4), 105 p. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13041005 134 p. [in English].

Baccar, R., Fournier, C., Dornbusch, T., Andrieu, B., Gouache, D., & Robert, C. (2011). Modelling the effect of wheat canopy architecture as affected by sowing density on Septoria tritici epidemics using a coupled epidemic–virtual plant model. Annals of Botany, 108(6), 1179–1194. DOI:10.1093/aob/mcr126. 231 p. [in English].

Suffert, F., Sache, I., & Lannou, C. (2010). Early stages of Septoria tritici blotch epidemics of winter wheat: Build up, overseasoning, and release of primary inoculum. Plant Pathology, 60 (2). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02369. 177 p. [in English].

FAO. (2021). Wheat diseases and climate resilience: Adapting crop protection to future risks. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/publications. 211 p. [in English].

Ecoaction. (2025, May 16). Climate change in Ukraine and the world: Causes, consequences, and solutions. Ecoaction Center for Environmental Initiatives. https://ecoaction.org.ua/zmina-klimatu-ua-ta-svit.html. 134 p. [in English].

Instytut zakhystu roslyn NAAN Ukrainy. (2023). Operatyvna informatsiia shchodo fitosanitarnoho stanu posiviv silskohospodarskykh kultur v Ukraini na 22 chervnia 2023 r. https://ipp.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/220623.doc. 242 s. [in Ukrainian].

Chaloner, T. M., Gurr, S. J., & Bebber, D. P. (2016). Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change. Global Change Biology, 22(11), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12899 162 p. [in English].